Google’s decision on third-party cookie deprecation—and what is still at risk for your brand.

Google's latest move doesn't signify a step back in prioritizing consumer privacy. Instead, it emphasizes giving users more individual control over their data. Similar to Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework that rolled out in 2021, consumers will be given a more prominent opt-in/opt-out choice within Chrome. This functionality already exists within the browser’s settings, but will be surfaced in a “new experience” in the future, according to Google.

For brands who have not made significant progress in mitigating the impact of third-party cookie deprecation, this announcement might seem like a lifeline. However, even without a specific cut-off date from a centralized body like Google, there will still be a decline in use by consumers. With a gradual erosion as consumers opt out, the bigger danger is that many brands won’t realize that the third-party cookie pool is getting smaller and smaller, and therefore less useful for their ad strategy.

We expect the majority of third-party cookie signals to shrink, regardless of Google’s decision.

The digital industry has seen this scenario play out in the past, and the data shows the impact will still be huge, if just gradual. When Google switched to a third-party cookie for Google Analytics over ten years ago, Sayf Sharif, SVP Data, says that his analysis showed “some sites were losing over 80% of their traffic, depending on the industry, due to the adoption of ad blockers.”

This trend has repeated itself over the years; based on the impact from Apple’s ATT rollout, we’d expect to see cookies “capture maybe 15% of the available universe,” according to Liz DeAngelis, SVP Digital Strategy. Even if third-party cookies will continue to exist as an option within major browsers like Chrome, consumers have shown time and again that when made aware of their options, the majority will opt out.

Moreover, third-party cookies have proved increasingly ineffective in today’s digital landscape. Sharif points out, “We still face numerous challenges for measurement, activation and attribution (such as a high use of ad blockers, consent rules and fast cookie expiration), which make a focus on a cookieless approach to measurement and attribution a priority.” This shift to consumer choice underscores the reality that brands should continue to avoid over-reliance on third-party cookies.

Regulatory and consumer influences on third-party cookies helped shape Google’s decision.

The journey to Google's latest decision has been shaped by a blend of regulatory pressures and evolving consumer expectations. “Google has been caught in the crosshairs between evolving global privacy regulations and competition laws in a range of markets, most notably Europe,” says Benjamin Combe, Sr. Director, Data Optimization and Personalization. Similar regulations like the Australian Privacy Act have gained steam elsewhere, reinforcing that this is a global trend, not a regional or cultural one.

Meanwhile, consumer behavior has shifted toward greater consent and control over personal data. The move toward giving users the ability to set their preferences in Chrome, then, is well aligned with the experiences consumers seek online—and their changing attitudes and expectations toward digital privacy. Combe adds, “It merely reflects a more gradual end to a long-running, multi-factored trend. Google will no longer be the executioner, but third-party cookies are dying regardless—and their utility as the foundation of digital advertising’s targeting and attribution capabilities will not return.”

Still, cookies haven't been the only source of scrutiny in recent years. Google's Privacy Sandbox, a privacy-safe alternative to third-party cookie tracking, has faced several challenges since its announcement in 2020: the initiative has struggled with lack of adoption, anti-competitive scrutiny, conflicting industry feedback, mixed testing results and regulatory pressure. “Google’s Privacy Sandbox raised anti-competition issues with the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), while simultaneously raising privacy concerns with the European Centre for Digital Rights and the UK’s Information Commissioner's Office,” Combe adds.

In short, both the regulatory landscape and consumer demand for greater data control led us here. So, what are brands supposed to do next?

Your brand’s first-party data strategies still need to evolve, or put your visibility and efficacy at risk.

Google's decision to give users control over third-party cookies rather than enforcing a complete deprecation has different implications depending on where brands stand in their preparation journey.

For businesses who may have used previous postponements of third-party deprecation as an excuse to delay action and conserve their resources, Tyler Stewart, Media Solutions Architect Lead, sees challenges down the line: “Smaller businesses may not have had the luxury of being on the front foot. In the longer term, this may only widen the gap between haves and have-nots as larger enterprises find themselves better positioned to compete in the privacy-first future.” Our advice to them: start prioritizing a cookieless approach now by focusing on first-party data and robust measurement strategies. Investing in AI-powered solutions and privacy-preserving technologies remains critical for future-proofing your marketing efforts.

Brands that have already embarked on their third-party cookie deprecation and privacy roadmap initiatives, meanwhile, have no need to pivot. “Strategies like the judicious use of first-party data, consent management, modeled measurement solutions and conversion recovery mechanisms will continue to be future-proofed strategies worth investing in,” says Stewart.

If you’re in this camp, don’t feel as if your efforts were in vain. “Those that have invested in reducing the impact of third-party cookie deprecation should take pride in being ahead of the curve with respect to utilization of first-party data, increasing compliance with global privacy regulations, innovating in measurement capabilities, and respecting their customers’ preferences,” says Combe. Staying the course will help future-proof your business’s data as the industry standards continue to evolve.

Better solutions for measurement will be customized for your business.

As an industry, the fragmentation and complexity we’re seeing across the digital ecosystem indicates we’re unlikely to move back to a uniform standard. “If you want to reach your customers wherever they are digitally, you need to be looking for new solutions for targeting, buying, and measurement. We can no longer rely on a consistent tactic that the entire industry adopts; brands need to move on from awaiting the next cookie alternative, and work on the solutions that are best for your company,” says DeAngelis.

The right strategy for your brand will depend on the complexity of your digital footprint and the data that’s most valuable for you to capture. To measure efficacy of your marketing activity, an important first step is to establish server-side tracking for your advertising, and take advantage of any event APIs from ad platforms, such as Meta’s Conversions API (CAPI). But in the long run, deterministic (user-level) measurement models will continue to weaken over time. Probabilistic models that assess changes across your entire business and media mix for causal contribution will be a necessity in the future, not an option. Strategies like Market Mix Modeling (MMM), or a Cookieless Multi-Touch Attribution (MTA) model offer viable alternatives to those challenges.

Similarly, identity resolution and user graph technologies are still viable for targeting, but a clear winner has yet to arise across the many providers that brands can choose from. As part of the announcement, Google emphasized that Privacy Sandbox will continue to be supported and developed as brands look ahead toward adapting their strategies beyond third-party cookie reliance—a goal that will remain important should users choose to opt out of third-party tracking en masse.

Move forward with a privacy-first marketing strategy.

No matter where your brand stands on the spectrum of cookie deprecation readiness, the path forward remains clear: continue to prioritize privacy-first strategies and the development of robust first-party data practices.

While third-party cookies have a new lease on life for now, they will never be as functional as they once were. They have already been deprecated in most non-Chrome browsers, and with Chrome indicating it will implement greater user permissions and controls, their availability is likely to continue declining—think of opt-in rates for ATT on iOS as a comparable scenario.

Brands should see this as an opportunity to stay ahead of the curve by continuing to invest in first-party data practices, consent management, and alternative measurement solutions—for teams that need advisory and executional support here, our data experts are ready to talk. The shift towards a privacy-first future is inevitable, and those who adapt proactively will be best positioned to thrive.

In the past, the idea of providing an automated MMM solution has terrified me. Blackbox solutions, which lack transparency, are as unsettling to me as they are to clients. However, the challenge lies in the fact that clients now demand speed and relevancy to ensure MMM thrives as it should. They require more models across their portfolio, greater granularity to account for channel fragmentation, and faster results and recommendations based on the latest campaigns and market conditions. If MMM cannot keep up with these demands, clients may resort to using easily accessible information, risking the possibility of making incorrect decisions based on inadequate data.

Therefore, I believe it is our role as experienced consultants to harness the power of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to meet these needs, whilst simultaneously ensuring we still have a thorough understanding of the decisions which are being made within the process. We must guide the machine, set boundaries for AI, and sometimes intervene to provide information that the algorithms may not currently know or be able to find. AI and ML advancements should be utilized to build the core models, streamline hypothesis testing, and handle the heavy lifting. And we need to appreciate that a model itself provides limited insights. We (the consultants) must bridge the gap between the model and actionable recommendations, translating the statistics and the numbers into a language that clients understand and can implement.

The best approach combines the speed of machines with the detailed craftsmanship of the econometrician. It is a fusion of AI capabilities and the expertise of consultants that yields the most valuable outcomes. If you find yourself lacking in either aspect, I encourage you to get in touch with us. We would be delighted to discuss our approach further, ensuring that you benefit from the best of both worlds.

AI and ML offer immense potential for MMM, but they must be leveraged in a thoughtful and supervised manner. By guiding the machines, setting boundaries, and providing human expertise, we can unlock the full power of AI while ensuring accurate and actionable recommendations. Let us embrace the synergy between technology and human insights to drive success in the dynamic landscape of marketing.

For more information on how we can help with your Marketing Effectiveness measurement or Market Mix Modelling, visit our Measurement page or contact us.

I am here to say that nobody puts MMM in a corner.

MMM not only quantifies the impact of various marketing activities on key performance indicators (KPIs), but also provides a measure of the effect on business performance of other controllable and external factors, such as price or distribution changes, competitors' actions, economic climate, and can even answer the question we all love to discuss, “How much of our performance is really down to the weather?” 

As MMM provides this panoramic view of all the key drivers, it is important to ensure it never operates in a silo if you want it to deliver its full potential. Here's why:

1. Cross-Functional Collaboration: MMM involves analyzing vast amounts of data from various teams. By demonstrating the benefits of MMM in terms of additional insights and recommendations, it encourages greater engagement from teams. This collaboration leads to a more comprehensive understanding of marketing effectiveness and drives better outcomes.

2. Influence Beyond Marketing: MMM has a significant role in shaping commercial decisions, particularly in pricing and promotions. Informed decision-making in these areas, such as identifying optimal price points, understanding price elasticity, and evaluating the impact of promotions on sales and revenue, empowers businesses to strike the right balance between profitability and customer demand.

3. Engaging Finance Teams: MMM often provides budget allocation recommendations across media channels, campaigns, departments, different brands in your portfolio as well as different markets. Involving finance teams ensures that recommendations are implemented and beneficial across the entire organisation. This collaboration quantifies the business decisions in both the short and long term.

In conclusion, MMM should be integrated across the whole business. By breaking down silos, fostering collaboration, and incorporating MMM into the decision-making processes, businesses gain more accurate insights, make better decisions, and achieve improved marketing performance and overall results.

Soon everyone will be holding MMM results and recommendations aloft above their head in the middle of the boardroom.

For more information on how we can help with your Marketing Effectiveness measurement or Market Mix Modelling,visit our Measurement page or contact us.