Choose your language

Choose your language

The website has been translated to English with the help of Humans and AI

Dismiss

Why Your Holiday Ads ROI Doesn’t Matter (Yet)

Why Your Holiday Ads ROI Doesn’t Matter (Yet)

Commerce Commerce, Data Strategy & Advisory, Media Strategy & Planning, Retail media, Seasonal marketing, eCommerce Platforms 3 min read
Profile picture for user Wyatt Burley

Written by
Wyatt Burley
Senior Advertising Manager

holiday-roi

Every ecommerce and retail advertiser knows the pressure placed on holiday ad campaigns. Budgets climb, expectations rise, and leadership starts asking one question: did we actually see a return?

Most brands look to return-on-ad-spend (ROAS) or advertising-cost-of-sales (ACoS) for the answer during their holiday ad flights. But those metrics often tell the wrong story for meaningful growth. Chasing a low ACoS or high ROAS in November might look like smart efficiency, yet it’s one of the fastest ways to hurt long-term performance.

The real ROI of Q4 shows up in Q1.

The real value of Q4 isn’t the short-term revenue spike but the audience and data foundation it builds for Q1 and beyond.

The purchase path data I’ve seen across brands reinforces this idea. Using five-year lookback windows from my clients’ Amazon Marketing Cloud (AMC) instances, the data consistently shows that Q4 shoppers often make another purchase within three months. These repeat purchases start meaningfully changing the unit economics of customer acquisition and strengthening organic visibility across product lines. This shows that strategic holiday spend can deliver returns long after the season ends.

When it’s time to defend your budget, position Q4 spend for what it is: a prepaid customer acquisition voucher for Q1, bought at a 50 percent discount. This framing eases CFO concerns about short-term efficiency when you have the data to show you are buying future Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) that outweighs the immediate cost. Effective brands measure beyond short-term revenue by tracking LTV, New-to-Brand (NTB) acquisition, and repeat purchase rate.

If you don’t have AMC, start by tracking NTB Purchase Share during Q4 and revisit those shoppers in Q1. Quantifying how many came back and bought more can demonstrate long-term value without a complex tech stack. 

But the groundwork for that ROI is laid earlier than you think.

Many brands still invest the majority of their ad dollars in an extremely short holiday window and hold their breath for marketing KPIs hour by hour throughout Cyber Week. However, there are two challenges with this.

First, ROAS and ACoS are shaped by two unpredictable variables that marketers do not have direct control over: cost-per-click (CPC) and conversion rate (CVR). When those shift drastically due to surges in shopping behavior (for example, we often see CVRs double in a matter of hours or days once deal periods begin around November 21), performance can look unstable even when it isn’t. If you react by lowering bids or cutting keywords that are performing, you’re playing a losing game of whack-a-mole and risk losing reach right when shoppers are ready to buy.

Second, the data shows that purchasing behavior is spread over a much wider window. Aligning spend with real shopper behavior makes every dollar work harder, and brands that stay active through this lead-in period capture the surge when shoppers move from browsing to purchasing. Brands should think of holiday in three phases with long bookends: late summer through early November builds awareness and consideration. Mid-November through Cyber Week drives conversion. Early to mid-December is for remarketing and retention, which trickles into that Q1 payoff mentioned before. Each phase compounds on the one before it. Instead of aiming for perfection in ad performance during a handful of days, focus on building momentum in the weeks and months preceding.

The payoff from investing early in generating demand dwarfs the effect of focusing so heavily on demand capture during Cyber Week, but requires time-sensitive shifts to your media planning. For example, video is one of the best ways to prime consumers earlier in the buying journey, but many DSPs and publishers of premium video placements (from Disney to Netflix, to Amazon) shift toward guaranteed buys during the holidays. Late planners or brands trying to react to in-flight micro trends during peak periods will be priced out of top placements. Securing them early gives you an edge competitors can’t match, and primes consumers for purchase of your products before the competition heats up.

Measure the health of Q1, not just the success of Q4.

When brands treat the holidays as an investment in future performance rather than a sales sprint, they start the new year ahead. The best-performing brands keep investing through the holidays and enter January with stronger visibility, more efficient ad spend, and shoppers who convert faster.

Watch your post-holiday data closely. Consistent traffic to product detail pages and steady organic conversion rates are signs that your strategy is working. These indicators show that visibility and intent built during Q4 are carrying into the new year.

The smartest brands see Q4 (and earlier) as the start of a new growth cycle, not the entire moment of payoff. Every dollar spent builds data, loyalty, and future revenue. That is how short-term spend becomes long-term strength, and how real ROI is earned.

If you want to refine your Amazon holiday planning or evaluate your Q4 to Q1 performance, connect with our team.

See how Amazon holiday advertising turns Q4 spend into long-term holiday ROI by driving new-to-brand growth, repeat buys, and stronger Q1 performance. Why Your Holiday Ads ROI Doesn’t Matter (Yet) See how Amazon holiday advertising turns Q4 spend into long-term holiday ROI by driving new-to-brand growth, repeat buys, and stronger Q1 performance. amazon holiday advertising holiday roi holiday advertising strategy holiday campaigns ecommerce strategy amazon ads amazon dsp amazon marketing cloud amc ROAS acos q4 success seasonal campaigns holiday marketing amazon advertising Commerce eCommerce Platforms Media Strategy & Planning Data Strategy & Advisory Retail media Seasonal marketing

How S4 Came Together to Own the Stage at Ad World 2021

How S4 Came Together to Own the Stage at Ad World 2021

4 min read
Profile picture for user mediamonks

Written by
Monks

How S4 Came Together to Own the Stage at Ad World 2021

This week at Ad World, our experts across S4Capital owned the virtual stage during its ‘21 edition. Combining their knowledge with hyper-focused speeches, actionable strategies and in-depth workshops, they showed up in the same way we approach our work as the marketing world converges: together. Here’s your cheat sheet in case you skipped class.

From the secret sauce behind the TikTok algorithm to new ways to foster diversity, equity and inclusion internally, this virtual conference left no subject out of the curriculum. Our marketers and leadership alike were there to shine a light on the most relevant aspects of a sustainable strategy, all through a common thread: the importance of truly knowing your consumers.

What Makes Audiences Tick on TikTok

Our very own Claudia Cameron, Head of Marketing and Insights at IMA, inaugurated Stage 1 on Monday for a 20-minute session on all things TikTok. She started with a very simple rule: don’t make ads, make TikToks. While many brands overanalyze and overproduce what they post, keeping it simple and focusing on storytelling is the real key to an entertainment experience that doesn’t feel forced.

ss1

Claudia Cameron, Head of Marketing and Insights at IMA, covered all things TikTok.

Moreover, your focus should not be on what a platform can give you. Instead, you may want to stop and consider what you can give its audience. “Keep low-key branding, look for native TikTok creators and maintain the collaborative environment,” she said. One way to do this? Join an existing challenge and sponsor influencer content to post on your brand account.

Although different brands go for different solutions, it’s important to have a long-term strategy and not just post once in a blue moon. Some additional tips include: make the first three seconds memorable, pick a trending sound and encourage users to leave comments. TikTok is a great environment for brands to experiment and build closer digital connections with consumers, as long as they are able to speak their language. 

Mitigate Flaws in Your Attribution

Regardless of the platform you’re using, one thing is true for all: you have to follow the metrics. However, it’s important to remember that even though attribution models are useful, they are never completely accurate. That was the main concept of VP of Account Services Brittany Blanchard’s talk on Tuesday, titled “How to Break Your Reliance on ROAS for Paid Search Campaigns.” 

Monk Thoughts Don’t overthink it. Use lots of metrics to tell your performance story and let common sense reign.
Brittany Blanchard of Monks, outdoors wearing a black shirt and smiling at the camera

With more users making cross-device purchases, return on ad spend (ROAS) becomes a flawed representation of each channel’s real effectiveness. Basing your decisions on this metric alone can be misleading—and while advertisers may be scared to put leads at risk for testing, it’s a necessary step toward growth. “Don’t overthink it. Use lots of metrics to tell your performance story and let common sense reign,” says Blanchard.

Her in-depth talk unveiled the foundations for a better testing and experimentation approach to digital marketing, focusing on how to set up your paid search and social performance measurement in a foolproof way. “To answer the questions you may have, it’s important to run a test,” she explained. How? “Choose a control audience and a test audience. Agree to what you’re going to measure, how, and give it enough time.” That last point is the key: “Things don’t happen instantly. Consumers think before they buy.” 

Marketers, the Modern-Age Investors

Even after all this measuring, cross-checking and strategic thinking, marketers are seldom thought of as investors. However, that’s exactly what they are. On his panel “An Economist Approach to Marketing That Drives Accelerated Long-Term Growth,” Decoded Advertising’s Head of Media Strategy, James Donner, talked about maximizing profit—and how the lack of investment discipline can create both massive risk and opportunity for brands.

“Advertisers and media buyers are less trained in economics, but they should be,” Donner explained. To truly maximize profit, marketers need to get rid of bad habits like short-term thinking, having a narrow view of return on investment (ROI) and relying on flawed data. These mistakes may lead them toward sales activations to boost ROI—and although these scale faster, so do they decay. Instead, focus on brand-building campaigns, which are the main drivers of growth. 

donner

James Donner, Head of Media Strategy at Decoded Advertising, brought an economist approach to marketing.

According to Donner, another tip is to track incrementality. “Measure brand’s impact on the bottom line over an extended period of time. Give it 12 or 14 months before drawing any conclusions.” And while you do so, make the most of your strategy by creating benchmarks for channels and audiences at various levels of spend over time. 

A Recipe for Continued Growth

Although proper measurement takes time, the timeline for content creation has shortened. As S4Capital Executive Chairman Sir Martin Sorrell said during the conference, “In today’s world, activation and implementation became more important. You can’t spend three to six months producing a TVC when the market is moving at lightning speed.”

In his eye-opening session about the future of advertising, Sorrell broke down the pillars he stands by—faster, better, cheaper—and how the death of the cookie will enhance the power of first-party data. As a first step, brands should reclaim their data and build an ecosystem that can inform the development of content and its distribution through digital media. This includes adapting the content to different needs, regions and languages. To do so, regional structures are no longer necessary. As Sorrell puts it: “In a digital world, we can centralize the production hub and create, produce and distribute digital content in all different regions. Our BMW Mini win from last year is a good example of that.”

sms

In his eye-opening session, S4Capital Executive Chairman Sir Martin Sorrell shined a light on the future of advertising.

As the world evolves and moves beyond the pandemic, efficiency will continue to be key. “Digital is where growth was, is and will be,” Sorrell noted. “By 2024, 70% of the market is going to be digital, which is why we are digital first in our constitution.” Circling back to the S4’s foundational pillars, he explained how agility and a better understanding of the ecosystem protect the value of the delivered products.

It all boils down to one concept: to get consistent growth, you have to understand consumers. However, it’s important for marketers to know that there’s no single source of truth to get there. Every attribution model will kill your strategy if it’s the only thing you follow—but by analyzing multiple data points to see what your audience is engaging with and through a more efficient, adaptive production process, you can better apply learnings to deliver effective content at record speed.

Marketers and leadership from across S4 came together at Ad World 2021, shining a light on different ways to build a sustainable marketing strategy. How S4 Came Together to Own the Stage at Ad World 2021 During the Ad World Conference 2021, S4 took the stage to cover advertising from multiple fronts.
Ad world TikTok branding attribution ROAS performance growth

Choose your language

Choose your language

The website has been translated to English with the help of Humans and AI

Dismiss