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Why Your Holiday Ads ROI Doesn’t Matter (Yet)

Why Your Holiday Ads ROI Doesn’t Matter (Yet)

Commerce Commerce, Data Strategy & Advisory, Media Strategy & Planning, Retail media, Seasonal marketing, eCommerce Platforms 3 min read
Profile picture for user Wyatt Burley

Written by
Wyatt Burley
Senior Advertising Manager

holiday-roi

Every ecommerce and retail advertiser knows the pressure placed on holiday ad campaigns. Budgets climb, expectations rise, and leadership starts asking one question: did we actually see a return?

Most brands look to return-on-ad-spend (ROAS) or advertising-cost-of-sales (ACoS) for the answer during their holiday ad flights. But those metrics often tell the wrong story for meaningful growth. Chasing a low ACoS or high ROAS in November might look like smart efficiency, yet it’s one of the fastest ways to hurt long-term performance.

The real ROI of Q4 shows up in Q1.

The real value of Q4 isn’t the short-term revenue spike but the audience and data foundation it builds for Q1 and beyond.

The purchase path data I’ve seen across brands reinforces this idea. Using five-year lookback windows from my clients’ Amazon Marketing Cloud (AMC) instances, the data consistently shows that Q4 shoppers often make another purchase within three months. These repeat purchases start meaningfully changing the unit economics of customer acquisition and strengthening organic visibility across product lines. This shows that strategic holiday spend can deliver returns long after the season ends.

When it’s time to defend your budget, position Q4 spend for what it is: a prepaid customer acquisition voucher for Q1, bought at a 50 percent discount. This framing eases CFO concerns about short-term efficiency when you have the data to show you are buying future Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) that outweighs the immediate cost. Effective brands measure beyond short-term revenue by tracking LTV, New-to-Brand (NTB) acquisition, and repeat purchase rate.

If you don’t have AMC, start by tracking NTB Purchase Share during Q4 and revisit those shoppers in Q1. Quantifying how many came back and bought more can demonstrate long-term value without a complex tech stack. 

But the groundwork for that ROI is laid earlier than you think.

Many brands still invest the majority of their ad dollars in an extremely short holiday window and hold their breath for marketing KPIs hour by hour throughout Cyber Week. However, there are two challenges with this.

First, ROAS and ACoS are shaped by two unpredictable variables that marketers do not have direct control over: cost-per-click (CPC) and conversion rate (CVR). When those shift drastically due to surges in shopping behavior (for example, we often see CVRs double in a matter of hours or days once deal periods begin around November 21), performance can look unstable even when it isn’t. If you react by lowering bids or cutting keywords that are performing, you’re playing a losing game of whack-a-mole and risk losing reach right when shoppers are ready to buy.

Second, the data shows that purchasing behavior is spread over a much wider window. Aligning spend with real shopper behavior makes every dollar work harder, and brands that stay active through this lead-in period capture the surge when shoppers move from browsing to purchasing. Brands should think of holiday in three phases with long bookends: late summer through early November builds awareness and consideration. Mid-November through Cyber Week drives conversion. Early to mid-December is for remarketing and retention, which trickles into that Q1 payoff mentioned before. Each phase compounds on the one before it. Instead of aiming for perfection in ad performance during a handful of days, focus on building momentum in the weeks and months preceding.

The payoff from investing early in generating demand dwarfs the effect of focusing so heavily on demand capture during Cyber Week, but requires time-sensitive shifts to your media planning. For example, video is one of the best ways to prime consumers earlier in the buying journey, but many DSPs and publishers of premium video placements (from Disney to Netflix, to Amazon) shift toward guaranteed buys during the holidays. Late planners or brands trying to react to in-flight micro trends during peak periods will be priced out of top placements. Securing them early gives you an edge competitors can’t match, and primes consumers for purchase of your products before the competition heats up.

Measure the health of Q1, not just the success of Q4.

When brands treat the holidays as an investment in future performance rather than a sales sprint, they start the new year ahead. The best-performing brands keep investing through the holidays and enter January with stronger visibility, more efficient ad spend, and shoppers who convert faster.

Watch your post-holiday data closely. Consistent traffic to product detail pages and steady organic conversion rates are signs that your strategy is working. These indicators show that visibility and intent built during Q4 are carrying into the new year.

The smartest brands see Q4 (and earlier) as the start of a new growth cycle, not the entire moment of payoff. Every dollar spent builds data, loyalty, and future revenue. That is how short-term spend becomes long-term strength, and how real ROI is earned.

If you want to refine your Amazon holiday planning or evaluate your Q4 to Q1 performance, connect with our team.

See how Amazon holiday advertising turns Q4 spend into long-term holiday ROI by driving new-to-brand growth, repeat buys, and stronger Q1 performance. Why Your Holiday Ads ROI Doesn’t Matter (Yet) See how Amazon holiday advertising turns Q4 spend into long-term holiday ROI by driving new-to-brand growth, repeat buys, and stronger Q1 performance. amazon holiday advertising holiday roi holiday advertising strategy holiday campaigns ecommerce strategy amazon ads amazon dsp amazon marketing cloud amc ROAS acos q4 success seasonal campaigns holiday marketing amazon advertising Commerce eCommerce Platforms Media Strategy & Planning Data Strategy & Advisory Retail media Seasonal marketing

Three Ways Influencers Can Boost Your Holiday-Season Campaign

Three Ways Influencers Can Boost Your Holiday-Season Campaign

4 min read
Profile picture for user mediamonks

Written by
Monks

Three Ways Influencers Can Boost Your Holiday-Season Campaign

Seemingly as soon as the Thanksgiving leftovers are put away, consumers rush to retailers online and off to get a start on their holiday shopping—at least in the US. But late November ushers in the biggest shopping season throughout the Western world, influenced by global digital retailers who have set a new pace by creeping the holiday calendar earlier and earlier. Still, it’s not too late to develop a relevant holiday campaign to reach consumers.

But don’t fear—it’s also the season of miracles, and brands still have time to get into the holiday spirit with influencers. Whether you need to quickly implement a campaign from concept to market or simply want to add a dash of spice to one that’s already in the works, there are still ways to cut through the blizzard of information overload in the cluttered holiday season with the aid of influencer partnerships.

They’re Agile & Up-to-Date

One of the biggest benefits that influencers bring to the table in a holiday campaign is that they are agile by nature; well-versed in what resonates with their audiences, influencers have strong, authentic and creative voices—and can deliver in short time. In fact, partnering with a handful of influencers is a great way to co-develop a robust collection of content needed to keep your brand at top of mind in the lead-up to the holidays.

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Last year’s #Twinning campaign for Cesar offered a fun, personalized response to an emerging social trend: dog owners matching their pups.

But in addition to providing scale, the flexibility that influencers bring to the table can also give your brand an edge against holiday-season competition. Shoppers have a rising interest in searching for the most up-to-date recommendations: Google highlights that “Best” and “right now” searches have grown 125% over the past couple years. Influencers have the speed and agility to weigh in on the most current trends or topics that their audiences care about, engaging them with an authoritative voice that consumers trust.

They’re Authentic—If You Let Them Be

As they begin working with influencers, many brands become concerned that they must relinquish some control of the message to someone else. Trust is key to safeguarding campaigns from getting muddled in rework and repeated review cycles—and is key to ensuring the deliverables are made on-time in the short and competitive holiday season. Realizing this, we’re ardent supporters of the idea that influencers are their most authentic when they have creative freedom in developing their content in partnership with brands.

This is the approach we used in an influencer campaign for a major UK insurer. The brand wants to raise awareness amongst Millennial and Gen-Z audiences, because some of the products and guidance they offer—such as cybersecurity and travel—are highly relevant for these audiences.

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Social features, like this festive world lens we made for Snapchat, can give an added boost to your social or influencer campaign.

“The challenge for this brand is that they have a super strong cyber offering for consumers but mental availability in the category and for the brand themselves is low among Millennials and Gen-Z,” says Alistair Vines, Business Lead at MediaMonks.

For the campaign, influencers were briefed on the desired content, which was planned out in a quick creative phase. Overall, influencers were able to create authentic content (within some guidelines) because they bought into and endorsed the message from the brand.

The result is a coherent campaign that tackles several cybersecurity issues, delivered in a way that relates to the target consumer groups (one piece of content generated over 4,000 likes in just two days). And because the influencers produced their own content, the whole campaign was developed from brief to launch in just five weeks.

They Offer Intimacy

In addition to expanding reach, partnering with influencers can also help tailor your brand to emergent search and shopping behaviors. According to holiday insights from Facebook, mobile shoppers are 1.85 times more likely to seek gift inspiration through Instagram. When focused on millennials alone, that number jumps even higher: they’re 3.19 times more likely to. The findings show how social media is increasingly important to consumers as they research purchases.

Monk Thoughts People are more than 2X as likely to add items to their basket and 40% more likely to spend more than planned in a highly personalized experience.

Google also presents interesting insight on digital shoppers’ search behavior. “People indicated they are more than 2X as likely to add items to their basket and 40% more likely to spend more than planned when they identify the shopping experience as highly personalized,” they note. When brands hear “personalization,” they might think about recommendation engines and highly targeted creative—essential components of any campaign, ecommerce platform or overall brand experience. But influencers can also accentuate personalization through the intimacy they provide to their audiences, helping online shoppers find the gift inspiration and ideas most relevant to them and their needs.

The statistics mentioned above might inspire practical KPIs that brands can achieve through influencers: gain mindshare, increase awareness and drive new sales. But it’s important to remember that connection is critical to influencer success; the branded content shouldn’t feel disjointed from that which an influencer routinely offers to their audience.

From delivering cross-channel content quickly to injecting intimacy and authenticity, influencers fit several strategies for brands to connect closer to audiences old and new. This can be with a campaign built from scratch, or an added layer on top of an existing one. Either way, influencer partnerships make a great way to build relationships in the season of togetherness.

Learn how influencers can boost holiday campaigns at any time in the holiday season--and into the next year with recent social trends. Three Ways Influencers Can Boost Your Holiday-Season Campaign As the gift that keeps on giving, influencers can boost campaigns for the holidays or into the next year.
Holiday campaigns seasonal campaigns influencer campaigns influencer marketing holiday marketing social media marketing social campaign fit for format consumer trends social shopping trends

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The website has been translated to English with the help of Humans and AI

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